Facing Climate Change

one more and I am done for tonight.  I am not caught up but this is another subject I have thinking a little bit about ... let me know what you think.

Seeking a 'New Normal'

The sky is falling

The world is going through a period of climate change. While humanity is contributing to climate change by adding carbon and other greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, climate change is occurring anyway. No matter what level of spending on research to prove it is humanity’s fault, according to the letter signed by renowned scientists such as Dr. Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists, human efforts to stop the change are futile (Morano, 2007). The framework of the global ecology is necessary to survive, but how will it endure this climate change event? York University Professor, Chris Thomas, in an article in Nature magazine, and quoted in the National Geographic Magazine, thinks it may not (Thomas, 2004). In order to survive this extinction level event, humanity must prioritize scientific research to adapt to the change.

The Washington Post called Lester Brown "one of the world's most influential thinkers." (Earth Policy Institute, 2010) Lester Brown blames human industrial activities for global climate change, and by altering humanity’s current technological trends will end climate change. In his book, Plan B4.0, Brown (Brown, 2009)writes a convincing argument of how human induced climate change affects sources and availability of fresh water and food production. He also links population growth’s contributions to reductions in fresh water availability through mismanagement and over use, food production reductions through urban sprawl, and increased sources of greenhouse gasses through technological advances. Plan B 4.0 is Lester Brown’s proposal for curbing humanity’s behavior and halt global climate change.

However, in its letter published in Science Magazine, dated May 2010, the National Academy of Science stipulated in its third conclusion that “natural causes always play a role in changing Earth's climate” (U.S. National Academy of Sciences, 2010). Although this letter concludes that humanity is overwhelming the other sources of contribution, it does not eliminate the fact that the climate change event would continue without human contribution.

In addition to human activity, researchers working with the U.S. Geological Survey have found a number of contributors to this period of climate change. These contributors include changes in the Sun’s energy emission; amounts of that energy reaching Earth, amounts of that energy reflected by Earth, and the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere are contributing to global climate change. Continental positions, ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds, vegetation, animal emissions, ice, and more contribute to the global climate change. Even the Sun’s brightness has increased slowly for billions of years. The Sun’s brightness, combined with Earth’s orbital change relationally to the latitudinal and seasonal distribution of sunshine, has an effect on total sunshine reaching the planet over tens of thousands of years. Additionally, great tectonic forces in the Earth rearrange continents and promote or reduce the effects of solar radiation on the Earth (Brennan, 2009).

The world is going through a period of climate change, humanity is contributing to it, but the change is occurring with or without human assistance. Humanity’s choices are not between stopping climate change and not stopping it, but adapt to climate change or perish.

An acorn?

Accepting that climate change is occurring and understanding that it is a potential human catastrophe is not equal to taking action to assure the survival of the species. There is intense debate, both politically and scientifically, as to whether humanity is causing climate change or climate change is a naturally occurring cycle.

In the recent CNN Republican Presidential Candidate debate, Governor Rick Perry took the position that he was unprepared to put the economy of his state at risk based on incomplete scientific data. Governor Perry does have access to sources that question the validity of “accepted science”.

In a letter dated December 13, 2007, over 100 scientists, many of them former UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations, 2011)contributors sent a letter to the Secretary General of the UN. This letter stated the number of accepted scientific contributors to the writing teams and the fact that the drafts are ‘approved line-by-line by government representatives’ means the IPCC summaries do not properly represent the consensus view of the experts (Morano, 2007). This letter states that ‘attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile’.

The scientific community agrees that we are experiencing a period of global warming but Paleoclimate researchers have demonstrated the globe has warmed and cooled many times over the last several million years. Even if humanity is accelerating the current warming cycle, it is not certain that the lack of a human catalyst will stop the increase in temperature. Thomas Crowley is the Founder and Director of SAGES at the Edinburgh University School of Geosciences. His program studies the history and modeling of past climates. He finds from past climate records that Earth’s temperature fluctuations mirror variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This has been true in all of the last four Ice Ages, and intervening warm periods. Observations have shown how rapid the switch from one climate to the other can be. In some instances abrupt change occurs in decades. Crowley’s concern is that the changes induced by humanity could lead to a comparable sudden switch in part of, or even the whole system. This is not because human activity is causing climate change but rather because human activities are adding to the root causes of climate change. (Thomas Crowley, 2008)

Climate change is a potential extinction event that prominent scientists think requires action. They disagree on what that action should be. To determine what is validly being done one must examine where money is being spent in research relating to climate change.

Follow the money

The majority of money supplied for research by the U.S. Government is for researchers looking for ways to alter human industrial patterns, not adaptive science. Amy Schatz reported in the Wall Street Journal that governmental organizations like NASA, NOAA, and the EPA are spending tens of billions of dollars (Schatz, 2009) to perform climate change research. Supporting Amy Schatz’ article is the Congressional Budget Office [CBO] report for March 2010 that shows thirty billion budgeted for climate change research under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act [ARRA]. The largest commitments of resources in the bill are for weatherization and other conservation efforts and for subsidies for new energy generation and electrical transmission, and the science programs received very little funding. There is no funding for research that would help humanity to adapt in the CBO report (Webre, 2010).

In order to address the problems of climate change both governments and scientists are developing requirements for the definition of best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision-making (Morgan, 2009). This research is critical to developing methodologies that would lead to solutions that will make climate change survivable.

It’s nobody’s fault

Accepting that climate change is occurring and human activities are contributing, is not equal to the ability of humanity to stop it. Accepting that humanity is the major contributor of causal materials is no excuse for IPCC and government representatives to ignore historical data. In a report published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Stephen Schwartz, writing for Brookhaven National Laboratory, concludes that the Earth’s climate is only about one-third as sensitive to carbon dioxide as the IPCC assumes (Schwartz, 2007). NASA published a report titled Earth’s Fidgeting Climate over a decade ago which data is still valid today because the research has not been overturned. The report featured the conclusion that this warming period may be part of a normal pattern. (Barry, 2000) The NASA report showed there are cycles to the Earth’s climate patterns called “Milankovitch Cycles.” The “Milankovitch Theory” or “Milankovitch Cycle” credits the earth's axis for causing seasons, and changes in the axis of the earth change the strength of the seasons but this is not enough to explain the longer periods of warming and shorter ice ages (Weart, 2011). Milankovitch reasoned that, “The seasons are accentuated or modified by the eccentricity [degree of roundness] of the orbital path around the sun, and the precession effects the position of the solstices in the annual orbit (NOAA Paleoclimatology, 2009).” The relationship of the axis of the Earth and the continental alignments during the times when the Earth is tilted toward the sun are compounded by the degree of roundness in the orbit – contributing to warming of the Earth’s climate.

In 2003, researchers from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Saint Petersburg, Russia - studying ice cores from Vostok, Antarctica - reported tracing carbon dioxide levels to global climate changes relationally for the last four hundred twenty thousand years. Their research concluded, “There is a close correlation between Antarctic temperature and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide” (Barnola, 2003). This finding corroborates the evidence that climate change is not entirely the fault of human industrial success. 

Christopher Scotese, 2002 Scientific American SciTech Award recipient, presented a thesis on the Paleoclimate that NASA presented in Earth’s Fidgeting Climate report. The data from Scotese’ research help to clarify ancient mechanisms of climate change and the subsequent collapses of ecological systems that existed in ancient times (Scotese, 2002). This data can be compiled, using the short instrumental record now available to form a longer-term context and testing model that is formulated to reach beyond the limited time that measurement instruments have been available. This will help determine the scope of the change. In NASA’s Earth’s Fidgeting Climate report the data from the Milankovitch Cycles is overlaid with the Paleoclimate data prepared by Scotese. This report provided data model that showed that the Earth spends more time warm than cool and that the warming trend we are currently in is likely to last longer than the cool period of recent earth history (Philips, 2001). Similar events historically have created mass extinctions of species unable to adapt to the changes, but humanity has the ability to think this through and find a survival solution.

You gotta eat!

Accepting that climate change is occurring equals focusing on survival of the species. If the increase in temperature is as sudden as other increases in temperature historically, in a relatively short time cities like Miami will be under water. With a rise of only 3 feet, Bangladesh would lose half of its ability to produce rice, as would many other lowland countries. In addition to temperature increases, evidence shows a broad variety of other climate changes, such as increases in the regularity of intense rainfall, decreases in snow cover and sea ice, more frequent and intense heat waves, rising sea levels, and widespread ocean acidification.   

No matter why climate change is occurring, it is important to look at the ecological stakeholders and form an understanding of the associated framework of linkages that occur in nature. No part of the Earth stands alone. The ecology of the planet interlaces from the depths of its core to the farthest reaches of the stratosphere. Throughout the complex structure and architecture of the ecological system that supports life on Earth there are complex chains (Swackhamer, 2009). Each of these frameworks and chains has collapse thresholds or ‘tipping points’ that are weaker than other points and are susceptible to damage and potential collapse. For example removing wild [domestic] cats from a downtown campus might result in a dramatic increase in rats. Ecological thresholds occur when external factors, feedbacks, or nonlinear instabilities in a system cause changes to propagate in a Jenga[1]-like fashion that are potentially irreversible (White, 2009). Identifying these ecological tipping points is a priority. Without a complete understanding of the climate change, it is imperative to know where the tipping points are, how to recognize threats to them, and how to protect them. 

Individually and collectively, these changes pose risks for a wide range of environmental systems, including freshwater resources, the coastal environment, ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries, human health, and national security. The risks of failing in a global effort to learn to adapt to climate change remain great. A country, by virtue of its own will, cannot secure its own food supply, fresh water supply, and prevent the demise of its population because climate change does not respect political borders.

Adaptation to global climate change requires planning for ecological alterations, development of new technologies for food production, and methodologies. Climate change is not temporary; adaptation is essential to human survival.

Finding a 'New Normal’

Climate change is happening – what can humanity do to survive? In his book Plan B4.0 Lester Brown formulates a plan of building an economic system whose basis is sustainability rather than consumption. However, in addition to the changes he proposes, there is also need to develop other advanced technologies for adaptation. Studies to determine how to grow food in an environment that is more hostile will help assure agricultural success. Political negotiations are required to extend human rights and dignity to the underdeveloped countries and their people. Cultures must be educated out by providing other paradigms, replacing the old paradigms with a new culture of humanity as a member of the global community. 

Historical evidence compiled by Scotese shows the warm periods last longer than the cool periods (Scotese, 2002), humanity must be prepared to adapt permanently. Historically global changes of this nature have been extinction events for most life on Earth. Current human development offers the opportunity for species survival for the first time, but planning a path forward is too big a responsibility for a single person, a single government, or a single governmental union. The survival of the human species is at stake. Survival requires sweeping away failed systems. Educational systems must be developed and implemented that will reach all the population with information that alters current social norms. This will help alter the behavioral, consumptive, and cultural norms previously accepted. Humanity must embrace technology expanded to include advanced life sciences for the sake of survival on a more violent planet (McCarthy, 2001). 

The technology needed for this adventure has not yet been invented. Education systems have not been created that will enlighten the future. Medical technology has not been invented that will sustain human life in the future warm cycle of the planet. Foods development is necessary to sustain life. Irrigation methods and apparatus are not yet available. To continue to live advanced clothing technologies are needed. Energy systems in use today will quickly become obsolete, new ones are needed. Housing technology and construction materials will all be required. Water production and purification methods and apparatus are needed. A completely new type of human infrastructure will be needed to survive the warmer more violent climate of Earth.

These goals are multigenerational in nature but humanity does not have multiple generations to adapt, the speed of the global climate change is overtaking governmental progress. To survive global climate change humanity must find a new ‘normal’.

Works Cited

Barnola, J.-M. D. (2003). Historical CO2 record from the Vostok ice core. U.S. Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Oak Ridge, TN: Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change.

Barry, P. L. (2000, October 20). Earth's Fidgeting Climate. (D. T. Philips, Ed.) Retrieved September 25, 2011, from NASA Science - Science News: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast20oct_1/

Brennan, W. J. (2009). Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes. U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, U.S. Geological Survey. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

Brown, L. (2009). Plan B 4.0. New York: The Earth Policy Institute, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.

Christopher R. Scotese, P. P. (2002, April 20). Christopher R. Scotese, Paleomap Project. Retrieved September 25, 2011, from Climate History: http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm

Christopher Walter, T. V. (2007, October 18). Science Based Policy for a better world. (R. Ferguson, Ed.) Retrieved September 25, 2011, from SPPI: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/press_releases/monckton-response-to-gore-errors.pdf

Dr. Deborah L. Swackhamer, D. B. (2009, May 29). Valuing the Protection of Ecological Systems and Services. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Earth Policy Institute. (2010). Bio for Lester Brown. Retrieved from Earth Policy Institute: http://www.earth-policy.org/about_epi/C32

McCarthy, J. J. (2001). Climate Change 2001. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Morano, M. (2007, December 13). Environment and Public Works. Retrieved October 3, 2011, from United States Senate: http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=d4b5fd23-802a-23ad-4565-3dce4095c360

Morgan, M. G. (2009). Best Practice Approaches for Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

NOAA Paleoclimatology. (2009, April 6). NOAA Paleoclimatology Program - Orbital Variations and Milankovitch Theory. Retrieved September 25, 2011, from NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html

O’Lear, S. (2010). Environmental Politics : Scale and Power. The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

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Pritchard, L. (1999). Social Dimensions of the Ecological Concept of Resilience. UMI, 131.

Schatz, A. (2009). Climate-Change Research Gets Big Boost in Budget. New York: Wall Street Journal.

Thomas Crowley, G. N. (2008). Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History. Science, 996-1002.

Thomas, C. D. (2004, January 8). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427(8 January 2004), 145-148.

U.S. National Academy of Sciences. (2010). Climate Change and the Integrety of Science. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Washington, D.C.: Science Magazine.

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United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (n.d.). IPCC. Retrieved from ip.

Weart, S. (2011, May). Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations . Retrieved September 25, 2011, from Discovering Global Warming: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/cycles.htm

Webre, P. (2010). Federal Climate Change Programs: Funding History and Policy Issues. Congree of the United States, Congressional Budget Office. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Budget Office.

White, J. W. (2009). Past Rates of Climate Change in the Arctic. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

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^[1] Jenga is a 3 dimensional strategic thinking game where blocks are removed until the tower of blocks loses its continuity and falls into a jumbled pile.